Riding profile
Swindon North
The question
Swindon North: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Swindon North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Will Stone
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSwindon North | 30.0% | 25.9% | 24.0% | 11.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.6 | 18.9% +7.0 | 21.7% +2.4 | 11.8% −0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stone Elected | Labour | 17,930 | 40.6 | — |
| Justin Tomlinson | Conservative | 13,827 | 31.3 | — |
| Les Willis | Reform UK | 7,557 | 17.1 | — |
| Andy Bentley | Green | 2,366 | 5.4 | — |
| Flo Clucas | Lib Dems | 2,086 | 4.7 | — |
| Debbie Hicks | Other | 260 | 0.6 | — |
| Scott Hunter | Other | 139 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029