Riding profile

Swindon North

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Swindon North: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.3%
  • Conservative 25.5%
  • Labour 22.9%
  • Green 10.6%
  • Lib Dems 5.8%
  • Other 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereSwindon North 32.3%25.5%22.9%10.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +7.0 19.3% +6.1 21.8% +1.1 10.8% −0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Swindon North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Will Stone

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Will Stone Elected Labour 17,930 40.6 —
Justin Tomlinson Conservative 13,827 31.3 —
Les Willis Reform UK 7,557 17.1 —
Andy Bentley Green 2,366 5.4 —
Flo Clucas Lib Dems 2,086 4.7 —
Debbie Hicks Other 260 0.6 —
Scott Hunter Other 139 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,721
Median age
39
Employment rate
78.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029