Riding profile
Chippenham
The question
Chippenham: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Chippenham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sarah Gibson
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChippenham | 36.2% | 24.7% | 23.0% | 7.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +24.6 | 25.3% −0.7 | 18.9% +4.1 | 11.8% −4.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Gibson Elected | Lib Dems | 22,552 | 45.5 | — |
| Nic Puntis | Conservative | 14,414 | 29.1 | — |
| Benjamin Ginsburg | Reform UK | 6,127 | 12.4 | — |
| Ravi Venkatesh | Labour | 3,925 | 7.9 | — |
| Declan Baseley | Green | 1,954 | 4.0 | — |
| Ed Deedigan | Other | 540 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029