Riding profile
Chippenham
The question
Chippenham: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChippenham | 37.6% | 25.3% | 23.0% | 7.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +26.2 | 25.4% −0.1 | 19.3% +3.7 | 10.8% −3.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Chippenham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 38% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sarah Gibson
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Gibson Elected | Lib Dems | 22,552 | 45.5 | — |
| Nic Puntis | Conservative | 14,414 | 29.1 | — |
| Benjamin Ginsburg | Reform UK | 6,127 | 12.4 | — |
| Ravi Venkatesh | Labour | 3,925 | 7.9 | — |
| Declan Baseley | Green | 1,954 | 4.0 | — |
| Ed Deedigan | Other | 540 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029