Riding profile
South West Wiltshire
The question
South West Wiltshire: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth West Wiltshire | 29.1% | 28.1% | 16.0% | 14.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +3.8 | 19.3% +8.7 | 21.8% −5.8 | 11.4% +3.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
South West Wiltshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dr Andrew Murrison
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Murrison Elected | Conservative | 15,617 | 33.8 | — |
| Evelyn Akoto | Labour | 12,374 | 26.8 | — |
| Garry Irvin | Reform UK | 7,840 | 17.0 | — |
| Bret Palmer | Lib Dems | 7,205 | 15.6 | — |
| Fay Whitfield | Green | 2,243 | 4.9 | — |
| James Ward | Other | 448 | 1.0 | — |
| Thomas Culshaw | Other | 441 | 1.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029