Riding profile
North Dorset
The question
North Dorset: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.5
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Dorset | 30.4% | 28.0% | 26.5% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +11.1 | 25.4% +2.6 | 11.4% +15.1 | 10.8% −2.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
North Dorset, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Simon Hoare
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Hoare Elected | Conservative | 18,208 | 36.6 | — |
| Gary Jackson | Lib Dems | 16,619 | 33.5 | — |
| Ash Leaning | Reform UK | 7,894 | 15.9 | — |
| James Coldwell | Labour | 4,370 | 8.8 | — |
| Ken Huggins | Green | 2,082 | 4.2 | — |
| Si Adams | Other | 317 | 0.6 | — |
| Jeff Taylor | Other | 119 | 0.2 | — |
| Daniel Woodruffe | Other | 74 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029