Riding profile
Poole
The question
Poole: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Poole, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Neil Duncan-Jordan
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePoole | 29.7% | 25.6% | 18.2% | 14.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.3 | 18.9% +6.7 | 21.7% −3.5 | 11.6% +2.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Duncan-Jordan Elected | Labour | 14,168 | 31.8 | — |
| Robert Syms | Conservative | 14,150 | 31.8 | — |
| Andrei Dragotoniu | Reform UK | 7,429 | 16.7 | — |
| Oliver Walters | Lib Dems | 5,507 | 12.4 | — |
| Sarah Ward | Green | 2,218 | 5.0 | — |
| Joe Cronin | Other | 698 | 1.6 | — |
| Leanne Barnes | Other | 325 | 0.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029