Riding profile

Frome and East Somerset

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Frome and East Somerset: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Frome and East Somerset, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Anna Sabine

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 29.0%
  • Reform UK 24.5%
  • Conservative 18.9%
  • Green 14.6%
  • Labour 9.7%
  • Other 3.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Green
HereFrome and East Somerset 29.0%24.5%18.9%14.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +17.4 25.3% −0.8 18.9% 11.8% +2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
11.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anna Sabine Elected Lib Dems 16,580 35.5
Lucy Trimnell Conservative 11,165 23.9
David Swain Reform UK 6,441 13.8
Robin Moss Labour 6,416 13.7
Martin Dimery Green 5,083 10.9
Shaun Hughes Other 737 1.6
Gavin Heathcote Other 294 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,800
Median age
45
Employment rate
90.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029