Riding profile
Frome and East Somerset
The question
Frome and East Somerset: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFrome and East Somerset | 30.0% | 25.8% | 18.8% | 13.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +18.6 | 25.4% +0.4 | 19.3% −0.5 | 10.8% +2.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Frome and East Somerset, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Anna Sabine
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Sabine Elected | Lib Dems | 16,580 | 35.5 | — |
| Lucy Trimnell | Conservative | 11,165 | 23.9 | — |
| David Swain | Reform UK | 6,441 | 13.8 | — |
| Robin Moss | Labour | 6,416 | 13.7 | — |
| Martin Dimery | Green | 5,083 | 10.9 | — |
| Shaun Hughes | Other | 737 | 1.6 | — |
| Gavin Heathcote | Other | 294 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029