Riding profile
Banbury
The question
Banbury: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBanbury | 27.0% | 25.1% | 21.6% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +7.7 | 25.4% −0.3 | 21.8% −0.2 | 10.8% +0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Banbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 27% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sean Woodcock
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Woodcock Elected | Labour | 18,468 | 38.3 | — |
| Victoria Prentis | Conservative | 15,212 | 31.6 | — |
| Paul Topley | Reform UK | 6,284 | 13.0 | — |
| Liz Adams | Lib Dems | 4,352 | 9.0 | — |
| Arron Baker | Green | 2,615 | 5.4 | — |
| Cassi Bellingham | Other | 850 | 1.8 | — |
| Chris Nevile | Other | 242 | 0.5 | — |
| Declan Soper | Other | 155 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029