Riding profile

Warwick and Leamington

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Warwick and Leamington: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 35.3%
  • Reform UK 21.8%
  • Conservative 19.4%
  • Green 12.6%
  • Lib Dems 8.8%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereWarwick and Leamington 35.3%21.8%19.4%12.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +13.5 25.4% −3.5 19.3% +0.1 10.8% +1.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Warwick and Leamington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Matt Western

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
25.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Matt Western Elected Labour 23,975 48.7 —
James Uffindell Conservative 11,563 23.5 —
Nigel Clarke Reform UK 5,154 10.5 —
Hema Yellapragada Green 4,471 9.1 —
Louis Adam Lib Dems 3,881 7.9 —
Laurie Steele Other 154 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,448
Median age
38
Employment rate
85.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029