Riding profile
Warwick and Leamington
The question
Warwick and Leamington: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Warwick and Leamington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 21% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Matt Western
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWarwick and Leamington | 33.2% | 21.1% | 19.4% | 14.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +11.5 | 25.3% −4.2 | 18.9% +0.5 | 11.8% +2.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Western Elected | Labour | 23,975 | 48.7 | — |
| James Uffindell | Conservative | 11,563 | 23.5 | — |
| Nigel Clarke | Reform UK | 5,154 | 10.5 | — |
| Hema Yellapragada | Green | 4,471 | 9.1 | — |
| Louis Adam | Lib Dems | 3,881 | 7.9 | — |
| Laurie Steele | Other | 154 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029