Riding profile
Eastleigh
The question
Eastleigh: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEastleigh | 34.1% | 24.0% | 22.8% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +22.7 | 19.3% +4.7 | 25.4% −2.5 | 21.8% −13.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Eastleigh, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Liz Jarvis
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Jarvis Elected | Lib Dems | 15,970 | 34.4 | — |
| Sam Joynson | Conservative | 14,424 | 31.1 | — |
| Daniel Shearer | Labour | 7,005 | 15.1 | — |
| Clare Fawcett | Reform UK | 6,151 | 13.3 | — |
| Ben Parry | Green | 2,403 | 5.2 | — |
| Russ Kitching | Other | 467 | 1.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029