Riding profile
Eastleigh
The question
Eastleigh: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Eastleigh, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Liz Jarvis
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.4
- P(close race)
- 8%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEastleigh | 30.1% | 24.8% | 23.5% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +18.4 | 18.9% +5.9 | 25.3% −1.8 | 21.7% −11.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Jarvis Elected | Lib Dems | 15,970 | 34.4 | — |
| Sam Joynson | Conservative | 14,424 | 31.1 | — |
| Daniel Shearer | Labour | 7,005 | 15.1 | — |
| Clare Fawcett | Reform UK | 6,151 | 13.3 | — |
| Ben Parry | Green | 2,403 | 5.2 | — |
| Russ Kitching | Other | 467 | 1.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029