Riding profile
Southampton Itchen
The question
Southampton Itchen: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouthampton Itchen | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.1% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +2.6 | 21.8% +4.8 | 19.3% +2.7 | 10.8% +2.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Southampton Itchen, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Darren Paffey
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Paffey Elected | Labour | 15,782 | 41.5 | — |
| Sidney Yankson | Conservative | 9,677 | 25.4 | — |
| Alex Culley | Reform UK | 6,853 | 18.0 | — |
| Neil Kelly | Green | 2,793 | 7.3 | — |
| James Batho | Lib Dems | 2,684 | 7.0 | — |
| Declan Clune | Other | 264 | 0.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029