Riding profile
Southampton Itchen
The question
Southampton Itchen: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Southampton Itchen, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Darren Paffey
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouthampton Itchen | 29.1% | 26.9% | 21.3% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.7 | 21.7% +5.2 | 18.9% +2.4 | 11.8% +0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Paffey Elected | Labour | 15,782 | 41.5 | — |
| Sidney Yankson | Conservative | 9,677 | 25.4 | — |
| Alex Culley | Reform UK | 6,853 | 18.0 | — |
| Neil Kelly | Green | 2,793 | 7.3 | — |
| James Batho | Lib Dems | 2,684 | 7.0 | — |
| Declan Clune | Other | 264 | 0.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029