Riding profile

Hamble Valley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Hamble Valley: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.9
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 30.0%
  • Lib Dems 26.1%
  • Reform UK 24.5%
  • Labour 9.5%
  • Green 7.9%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Lib Dems Reform UK Labour
HereHamble Valley 30.0%26.1%24.5%9.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +10.7 11.4% +14.7 25.4% −0.9 21.8% −12.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hamble Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for the Lib Dems, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Paul Holmes

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
8.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Paul Holmes Elected Conservative 19,671 36.4 —
Prad Bains Lib Dems 14,869 27.5 —
Devina Paul Labour 8,753 16.2 —
Caroline Gladwin Reform UK 8,216 15.2 —
Kate Needham Green 2,310 4.3 —
Binka Griffin Other 185 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,937
Median age
43
Employment rate
92.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029