Riding profile
Hamble Valley
The question
Hamble Valley: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Hamble Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Paul Holmes
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHamble Valley | 29.6% | 25.6% | 24.2% | 10.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +10.7 | 25.3% +0.3 | 11.6% +12.5 | 21.7% −10.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Holmes Elected | Conservative | 19,671 | 36.4 | — |
| Prad Bains | Lib Dems | 14,869 | 27.5 | — |
| Devina Paul | Labour | 8,753 | 16.2 | — |
| Caroline Gladwin | Reform UK | 8,216 | 15.2 | — |
| Kate Needham | Green | 2,310 | 4.3 | — |
| Binka Griffin | Other | 185 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029