Riding profile

Fareham and Waterlooville

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Fareham and Waterlooville: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.1%
  • Reform UK 28.6%
  • Lib Dems 18.4%
  • Labour 13.6%
  • Green 7.8%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereFareham and Waterlooville 29.1%28.6%18.4%13.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +9.8 25.4% +3.3 11.4% +7.0 21.8% −8.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Fareham and Waterlooville, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Suella Braverman

Sits with Reform UK

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Suella Braverman Elected Conservative 17,561 35.0 —
Gemma Furnivall Labour 11,482 22.9 —
Bella Hewitt Lib Dems 9,533 19.0 —
Kevan Chippindall-Higgin Reform UK 9,084 18.1 —
Baz Marie Green 2,036 4.1 —
Robert Holliday Other 217 0.4 —
Edward Dean Other 210 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,399
Median age
46
Employment rate
82.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029