Riding profile
Fareham and Waterlooville
The question
Fareham and Waterlooville: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Fareham and Waterlooville, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Suella Braverman
Sits with Reform UK
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 72%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFareham and Waterlooville | 28.9% | 28.8% | 17.1% | 14.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +10.1 | 25.3% +3.5 | 11.6% +5.5 | 21.7% −7.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suella Braverman Elected | Conservative | 17,561 | 35.0 | — |
| Gemma Furnivall | Labour | 11,482 | 22.9 | — |
| Bella Hewitt | Lib Dems | 9,533 | 19.0 | — |
| Kevan Chippindall-Higgin | Reform UK | 9,084 | 18.1 | — |
| Baz Marie | Green | 2,036 | 4.1 | — |
| Robert Holliday | Other | 217 | 0.4 | — |
| Edward Dean | Other | 210 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029