Riding profile
Havant
The question
Havant: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Havant, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alan Mak
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHavant | 32.9% | 26.4% | 18.5% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.5 | 18.9% +7.5 | 21.7% −3.2 | 11.8% −0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Mak Elected | Conservative | 12,986 | 30.8 | — |
| Stefanie Harvey | Labour | 12,894 | 30.6 | — |
| John Perry | Reform UK | 9,959 | 23.6 | — |
| Gayathri Sathyanath | Lib Dems | 3,275 | 7.8 | — |
| Netty Shepherd | Green | 2,861 | 6.8 | — |
| Jennifer Alemanno | Other | 211 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029