Riding profile

Havant

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Havant: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
87%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.7%
  • Conservative 27.9%
  • Labour 18.6%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Lib Dems 9.1%
  • Other 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereHavant 32.7%27.9%18.6%9.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +7.3 19.3% +8.6 21.8% −3.2 10.8% −1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Havant, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alan Mak

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
0.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alan Mak Elected Conservative 12,986 30.8 —
Stefanie Harvey Labour 12,894 30.6 —
John Perry Reform UK 9,959 23.6 —
Gayathri Sathyanath Lib Dems 3,275 7.8 —
Netty Shepherd Green 2,861 6.8 —
Jennifer Alemanno Other 211 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,428
Median age
46
Employment rate
73.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029