Riding profile

Chichester

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Chichester: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Chichester, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 39% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jess Brown-Fuller

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 38.9%
  • Reform UK 24.6%
  • Conservative 20.5%
  • Green 7.9%
  • Labour 6.2%
  • Other 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Green
HereChichester 38.9%24.6%20.5%7.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +27.3 25.3% −0.7 18.9% +1.6 11.8% −3.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
23.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jess Brown-Fuller Elected Lib Dems 25,540 49.2
Gillian Keegan Conservative 13,368 25.7
Teresa De Santis Reform UK 7,859 15.1
Tom Collinge Labour 3,175 6.1
Tim Young Green 1,815 3.5
Andrew Emerson Other 190 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,376
Median age
47
Employment rate
77.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029