Riding profile

Chichester

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Chichester: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 41.0%
  • Reform UK 25.5%
  • Conservative 20.6%
  • Green 7.5%
  • Labour 3.3%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Green
HereChichester 41.0%25.5%20.6%7.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +29.7 25.4% +0.1 19.3% +1.3 10.8% −3.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Chichester, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 41% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jess Brown-Fuller

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
23.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jess Brown-Fuller Elected Lib Dems 25,540 49.2 —
Gillian Keegan Conservative 13,368 25.7 —
Teresa De Santis Reform UK 7,859 15.1 —
Tom Collinge Labour 3,175 6.1 —
Tim Young Green 1,815 3.5 —
Andrew Emerson Other 190 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,376
Median age
47
Employment rate
77.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029