Riding profile

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.9%
  • Conservative 28.3%
  • Labour 17.6%
  • Lib Dems 12.2%
  • Green 8.0%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereBognor Regis and Littlehampton 30.9%28.3%17.6%12.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.5 19.3% +8.9 21.8% −4.2 11.4% +0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alison Griffiths

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alison Griffiths Elected Conservative 15,678 32.8
Clare Walsh Labour 13,913 29.1
Sandra Daniells Reform UK 10,262 21.5
Henry Jones Lib Dems 5,081 10.6
Carol Birch Green 2,185 4.6
David Kurten Other 708 1.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,496
Median age
48
Employment rate
80.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029