Riding profile
Arundel and South Downs
The question
Arundel and South Downs: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Arundel and South Downs, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 33% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Andrew Griffith
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereArundel and South Downs | 33.3% | 23.3% | 15.8% | 14.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +14.4 | 25.3% −2.1 | 11.6% +4.2 | 11.8% +2.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Griffith Elected | Conservative | 22,001 | 40.2 | — |
| Richard Allen | Lib Dems | 9,867 | 18.0 | — |
| Christopher Philipsborn | Labour | 9,782 | 17.9 | — |
| David Thomas | Reform UK | 7,391 | 13.5 | — |
| Steve McAuliffe | Green | 5,515 | 10.1 | — |
| Mike Smith | Other | 184 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029