Riding profile

Arundel and South Downs

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Arundel and South Downs: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 34.3%
  • Reform UK 23.9%
  • Lib Dems 16.8%
  • Green 12.8%
  • Labour 10.1%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Green
HereArundel and South Downs 34.3%23.9%16.8%12.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +14.9 25.4% −1.4 11.4% +5.4 10.8% +2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Arundel and South Downs, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Andrew Griffith

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
22.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Griffith Elected Conservative 22,001 40.2 —
Richard Allen Lib Dems 9,867 18.0 —
Christopher Philipsborn Labour 9,782 17.9 —
David Thomas Reform UK 7,391 13.5 —
Steve McAuliffe Green 5,515 10.1 —
Mike Smith Other 184 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,053
Median age
52
Employment rate
85.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029