Riding profile

Portsmouth North

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Portsmouth North: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.9%
  • Conservative 28.9%
  • Labour 20.4%
  • Lib Dems 9.7%
  • Green 9.6%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HerePortsmouth North 29.9%28.9%20.4%9.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.6 19.3% +9.6 21.8% −1.4 11.4% −1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Portsmouth North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Amanda Martin

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
1.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Amanda Martin Elected Labour 14,495 34.9 —
Penny Mordaunt Conservative 13,715 33.0 —
Melvyn Todd Reform UK 8,501 20.4 —
Simon Dodd Lib Dems 3,031 7.3 —
Duncan Robinson Green 1,851 4.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,849
Median age
39
Employment rate
79.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029