Riding profile
Portsmouth North
The question
Portsmouth North: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Portsmouth North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Amanda Martin
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePortsmouth North | 31.8% | 28.6% | 20.3% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.4 | 18.9% +9.7 | 21.7% −1.4 | 11.6% −1.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Martin Elected | Labour | 14,495 | 34.9 | — |
| Penny Mordaunt | Conservative | 13,715 | 33.0 | — |
| Melvyn Todd | Reform UK | 8,501 | 20.4 | — |
| Simon Dodd | Lib Dems | 3,031 | 7.3 | — |
| Duncan Robinson | Green | 1,851 | 4.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029