Riding profile
Isle of Wight East
The question
Isle of Wight East: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Isle of Wight East, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Joe Robertson
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Green | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereIsle of Wight East | 31.2% | 23.6% | 21.5% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.8 | 18.9% +4.7 | 11.8% +9.6 | 11.6% −0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Robertson Elected | Conservative | 10,427 | 30.6 | — |
| Sarah Morris | Reform UK | 7,104 | 20.9 | — |
| Vix Lowthion | Green | 6,313 | 18.5 | — |
| Emily Brothers | Labour | 6,264 | 18.4 | — |
| Michael Lilley | Lib Dems | 3,550 | 10.4 | — |
| David Groocock | Other | 420 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029