Riding profile

Isle of Wight East

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Isle of Wight East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.6%
  • Conservative 25.7%
  • Green 21.1%
  • Lib Dems 10.4%
  • Labour 10.3%
  • Other 2.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Green Lib Dems
HereIsle of Wight East 29.6%25.7%21.1%10.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.3 19.3% +6.4 10.8% +10.3 11.4% −1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Isle of Wight East, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Joe Robertson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
9.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joe Robertson Elected Conservative 10,427 30.6 —
Sarah Morris Reform UK 7,104 20.9 —
Vix Lowthion Green 6,313 18.5 —
Emily Brothers Labour 6,264 18.4 —
Michael Lilley Lib Dems 3,550 10.4 —
David Groocock Other 420 1.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
69,526
Median age
53
Employment rate
70.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029