Riding profile
Portsmouth South
The question
Portsmouth South: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePortsmouth South | 32.7% | 22.5% | 15.8% | 13.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +10.9 | 25.4% −2.8 | 10.8% +5.0 | 11.4% +2.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Portsmouth South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Stephen Morgan
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Morgan Elected | Labour | 18,857 | 48.4 | — |
| Mark Zimmer | Reform UK | 5,702 | 14.7 | — |
| Signe Biddle | Conservative | 5,643 | 14.5 | — |
| Charlie Murphy | Lib Dems | 4,886 | 12.6 | — |
| Elliott Lee | Green | 3,107 | 8.0 | — |
| Jacob Short | Other | 733 | 1.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029