Riding profile
Gosport
The question
Gosport: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Gosport, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dame Caroline Dinenage
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGosport | 33.4% | 29.9% | 15.8% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +14.5 | 25.3% +4.5 | 21.7% −5.9 | 11.6% −1.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Dinenage Elected | Conservative | 17,830 | 40.3 | — |
| Edward Batterbury | Labour | 11,776 | 26.6 | — |
| Matt Mulliss | Reform UK | 7,983 | 18.0 | — |
| Tim Bearder | Lib Dems | 4,039 | 9.1 | — |
| Tony Sudworth | Green | 1,948 | 4.4 | — |
| Jeff Roberts | Other | 334 | 0.8 | — |
| Lisa Englefield | Other | 319 | 0.7 | — |
| Dave Watson | Other | 48 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029