Riding profile
Gosport
The question
Gosport: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGosport | 34.0% | 28.4% | 15.7% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +14.7 | 25.4% +3.0 | 21.8% −6.1 | 11.4% −0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Gosport, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 34% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dame Caroline Dinenage
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Dinenage Elected | Conservative | 17,830 | 40.3 | — |
| Edward Batterbury | Labour | 11,776 | 26.6 | — |
| Matt Mulliss | Reform UK | 7,983 | 18.0 | — |
| Tim Bearder | Lib Dems | 4,039 | 9.1 | — |
| Tony Sudworth | Green | 1,948 | 4.4 | — |
| Jeff Roberts | Other | 334 | 0.8 | — |
| Lisa Englefield | Other | 319 | 0.7 | — |
| Dave Watson | Other | 48 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029