Riding profile

South Cambridgeshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

South Cambridgeshire: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 43.1%
  • Conservative 20.8%
  • Reform UK 19.1%
  • Green 8.7%
  • Labour 6.1%
  • Other 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereSouth Cambridgeshire 43.1%20.8%19.1%8.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +31.7 19.3% +1.5 25.4% −6.3 10.8% −2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

South Cambridgeshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 43% vote share, against 21% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Pippa Heylings

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
19.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pippa Heylings Elected Lib Dems 25,704 46.8
Chris Carter-Chapman Conservative 15,063 27.4
Luke Viner Labour 6,106 11.1
Harrison Edwards Reform UK 4,897 8.9
Miranda Fyfe Green 2,656 4.8
James Gordon Other 459 0.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,430
Median age
43
Employment rate
82.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029