Riding profile

Epping Forest

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Epping Forest: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 35.3%
  • Labour 18.6%
  • Reform UK 16.1%
  • Lib Dems 13.4%
  • Green 8.5%
  • Other 8.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Lib Dems
HereEpping Forest 35.3%18.6%16.1%13.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +16.0 21.8% −3.3 25.4% −9.3 11.4% +2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Epping Forest, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 35% vote share, against 19% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dr Neil Hudson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
13.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Neil Hudson Elected Conservative 18,038 43.2 —
Rosalind Doré Labour 12,356 29.6 —
Jon Whitehouse Lib Dems 5,268 12.6 —
Ed Pond Other 3,037 7.3 —
Simon Heap Green 2,486 6.0 —
Thomas Hall Other 568 1.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,670
Median age
41
Employment rate
81.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029