Riding profile

Epping Forest

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Epping Forest: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Editorial read

Epping Forest, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 35% vote share, against 18% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dr Neil Hudson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 34.8%
  • Reform UK 17.9%
  • Labour 17.1%
  • Lib Dems 12.5%
  • Green 9.7%
  • Other 7.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereEpping Forest 34.8%17.9%17.1%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +15.9 25.3% −7.4 21.7% −4.5 11.6% +0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
13.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Neil Hudson Elected Conservative 18,038 43.2
Rosalind Doré Labour 12,356 29.6
Jon Whitehouse Lib Dems 5,268 12.6
Ed Pond Other 3,037 7.3
Simon Heap Green 2,486 6.0
Thomas Hall Other 568 1.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,670
Median age
41
Employment rate
81.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029