Riding profile

Rutherglen

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Rutherglen: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.5
P(close race)
16%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 30.9%
  • Labour 25.5%
  • Reform UK 20.6%
  • Other 6.7%
  • Conservative 5.5%
  • Green 5.5%
  • Lib Dems 5.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Other
HereRutherglen 30.9%25.5%20.6%6.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +28.2 21.8% +3.7 25.4% −4.7 5.0% +1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Rutherglen, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 31% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Michael Shanks

Sits with Labour

Since
2023-10-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
20.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michael Shanks Elected Labour 21,460 50.5 —
Katy Loudon SNP 12,693 29.9 —
David Stark Reform UK 2,685 6.3 —
Gary Burns Conservative 2,420 5.7 —
Gloria Adebo Lib Dems 1,714 4.0 —
Bill Bonnar Other 541 1.3 —
Jim Eadie Other 497 1.2 —
John McArthur Other 321 0.8 —
Andrew Daly Other 153 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
75.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029