Riding profile
Rutherglen
The question
Rutherglen: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Rutherglen, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 29% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Michael Shanks
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.7
- P(close race)
- 69%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRutherglen | 28.9% | 26.5% | 20.9% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.5% +26.4 | 21.7% +4.8 | 25.3% −4.4 | 11.8% −4.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Shanks Elected | Labour | 21,460 | 50.5 | — |
| Katy Loudon | SNP | 12,693 | 29.9 | — |
| David Stark | Reform UK | 2,685 | 6.3 | — |
| Gary Burns | Conservative | 2,420 | 5.7 | — |
| Gloria Adebo | Lib Dems | 1,714 | 4.0 | — |
| Bill Bonnar | Other | 541 | 1.3 | — |
| Jim Eadie | Other | 497 | 1.2 | — |
| John McArthur | Other | 321 | 0.8 | — |
| Andrew Daly | Other | 153 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029