Riding profile

Mid Dunbartonshire

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Mid Dunbartonshire: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 41.0%
  • SNP 20.7%
  • Reform UK 17.3%
  • Labour 8.8%
  • Green 5.7%
  • Conservative 4.5%
  • Other 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems SNP Reform UK Labour
HereMid Dunbartonshire 41.0%20.7%17.3%8.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +29.6 2.8% +17.9 25.4% −8.1 21.8% −13.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Mid Dunbartonshire, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 41% vote share, against 21% for the SNP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Susan Murray

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
18.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Susan Murray Elected Lib Dems 22,349 42.4 —
Amy Callaghan SNP 12,676 24.0 —
Lorna Dougall Labour 10,993 20.8 —
Alix Mathieson Conservative 2,452 4.7 —
David McNabb Reform UK 2,099 4.0 —
Carolynn Scrimgeour Green 1,720 3.3 —
Ray James Other 449 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
79.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029