Riding profile
Paisley and Renfrewshire North
The question
Paisley and Renfrewshire North: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePaisley and Renfrewshire North | 34.3% | 22.7% | 21.9% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +31.6 | 25.4% −2.7 | 21.8% +0.1 | 10.8% −2.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Paisley and Renfrewshire North, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 34% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alison Taylor
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alison Taylor Elected | Labour | 19,561 | 47.1 | — |
| Gavin Newlands | SNP | 13,228 | 31.9 | — |
| Andrew Scott | Reform UK | 3,228 | 7.8 | — |
| David McGonigle | Conservative | 2,659 | 6.4 | — |
| Jen Bell | Green | 1,469 | 3.5 | — |
| Grant Toghill | Lib Dems | 1,374 | 3.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029