Riding profile
Paisley and Renfrewshire North
The question
Paisley and Renfrewshire North: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Editorial read
Paisley and Renfrewshire North, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alison Taylor
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePaisley and Renfrewshire North | 30.5% | 24.0% | 23.7% | 7.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.5% +28.0 | 21.7% +2.3 | 25.3% −1.7 | 11.8% −4.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alison Taylor Elected | Labour | 19,561 | 47.1 | — |
| Gavin Newlands | SNP | 13,228 | 31.9 | — |
| Andrew Scott | Reform UK | 3,228 | 7.8 | — |
| David McGonigle | Conservative | 2,659 | 6.4 | — |
| Jen Bell | Green | 1,469 | 3.5 | — |
| Grant Toghill | Lib Dems | 1,374 | 3.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029