Riding profile
Paisley and Renfrewshire South
The question
Paisley and Renfrewshire South: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Editorial read
Paisley and Renfrewshire South, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Johanna Baxter
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePaisley and Renfrewshire South | 30.5% | 25.5% | 20.8% | 7.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.5% +28.0 | 21.7% +3.8 | 25.3% −4.5 | 11.8% −4.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johanna Baxter Elected | Labour | 19,583 | 47.4 | — |
| Jacqueline Cameron | SNP | 13,056 | 31.6 | — |
| Jim McIlroy | Reform UK | 2,956 | 7.2 | — |
| Alec Leishman | Conservative | 2,219 | 5.4 | — |
| Athol Bond | Green | 1,724 | 4.2 | — |
| Jack Clark | Lib Dems | 1,315 | 3.2 | — |
| Paul Mack | Other | 317 | 0.8 | — |
| Mark Turnbull | Other | 113 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029