Riding profile

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Paisley and Renfrewshire South: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 34.1%
  • Labour 23.8%
  • Reform UK 20.7%
  • Green 8.6%
  • Conservative 5.5%
  • Lib Dems 4.2%
  • Other 2.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Green
HerePaisley and Renfrewshire South 34.1%23.8%20.7%8.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +31.3 21.8% +2.0 25.4% −4.7 10.8% −2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Paisley and Renfrewshire South, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Johanna Baxter

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Johanna Baxter Elected Labour 19,583 47.4 —
Jacqueline Cameron SNP 13,056 31.6 —
Jim McIlroy Reform UK 2,956 7.2 —
Alec Leishman Conservative 2,219 5.4 —
Athol Bond Green 1,724 4.2 —
Jack Clark Lib Dems 1,315 3.2 —
Paul Mack Other 317 0.8 —
Mark Turnbull Other 113 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
77.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029