Riding profile

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Editorial read

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 32% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Martin McCluskey

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 32.0%
  • Labour 22.4%
  • Reform UK 21.5%
  • Conservative 8.1%
  • Green 5.9%
  • Lib Dems 5.0%
  • Other 4.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Conservative
HereInverclyde and Renfrewshire West 32.0%22.4%21.5%8.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +29.5 21.7% +0.7 25.3% −3.8 18.9% −10.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Martin McCluskey Elected Labour 18,931 46.9 —
Ronnie Cowan SNP 12,560 31.1 —
Ted Runciman Conservative 2,863 7.1 —
Simon Moorehead Reform UK 2,476 6.1 —
Ross Stalker Lib Dems 1,259 3.1 —
Iain Hamilton Green 1,173 2.9 —
Christopher McEleny Other 723 1.8 —
John Burleigh Other 365 0.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
70.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029