Riding profile
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West
The question
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereInverclyde and Renfrewshire West | 34.8% | 20.8% | 19.8% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +32.0 | 25.4% −4.6 | 21.8% −2.0 | 19.3% −10.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 35% vote share, against 21% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Martin McCluskey
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin McCluskey Elected | Labour | 18,931 | 46.9 | — |
| Ronnie Cowan | SNP | 12,560 | 31.1 | — |
| Ted Runciman | Conservative | 2,863 | 7.1 | — |
| Simon Moorehead | Reform UK | 2,476 | 6.1 | — |
| Ross Stalker | Lib Dems | 1,259 | 3.1 | — |
| Iain Hamilton | Green | 1,173 | 2.9 | — |
| Christopher McEleny | Other | 723 | 1.8 | — |
| John Burleigh | Other | 365 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029