Riding profile

North West Norfolk

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

North West Norfolk: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 33.3%
  • Conservative 29.0%
  • Labour 13.9%
  • Lib Dems 13.7%
  • Green 8.7%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereNorth West Norfolk 33.3%29.0%13.9%13.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +8.0 19.3% +9.7 21.8% −7.9 11.4% +2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North West Norfolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

James Wild

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
James Wild Elected Conservative 16,097 36.1 —
Tim Leaver Labour 11,143 25.0 —
Phil Walton Reform UK 8,697 19.5 —
Rob Colwell Lib Dems 6,492 14.6 —
Michael de Whalley Green 2,137 4.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,352
Median age
48
Employment rate
78.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029