Riding profile
North West Norfolk
The question
North West Norfolk: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
North West Norfolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
James Wild
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth West Norfolk | 32.5% | 29.4% | 14.3% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.1 | 18.9% +10.5 | 21.7% −7.4 | 11.6% +2.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wild Elected | Conservative | 16,097 | 36.1 | — |
| Tim Leaver | Labour | 11,143 | 25.0 | — |
| Phil Walton | Reform UK | 8,697 | 19.5 | — |
| Rob Colwell | Lib Dems | 6,492 | 14.6 | — |
| Michael de Whalley | Green | 2,137 | 4.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029