Riding profile

North West Norfolk

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

North West Norfolk: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

North West Norfolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

James Wild

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.5%
  • Conservative 29.4%
  • Labour 14.3%
  • Lib Dems 13.6%
  • Green 8.9%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereNorth West Norfolk 32.5%29.4%14.3%13.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +7.1 18.9% +10.5 21.7% −7.4 11.6% +2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
James Wild Elected Conservative 16,097 36.1
Tim Leaver Labour 11,143 25.0
Phil Walton Reform UK 8,697 19.5
Rob Colwell Lib Dems 6,492 14.6
Michael de Whalley Green 2,137 4.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,352
Median age
48
Employment rate
78.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029