Riding profile

Mid Norfolk

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Mid Norfolk: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Mid Norfolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

George Freeman

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 33.4%
  • Conservative 30.4%
  • Labour 17.1%
  • Green 10.4%
  • Lib Dems 7.4%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereMid Norfolk 33.4%30.4%17.1%10.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +8.1 18.9% +11.5 21.7% −4.6 11.8% −1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
George Freeman Elected Conservative 16,770 36.5
Michael Rosen Labour 13,716 29.9
Kabeer Kher Reform UK 9,427 20.5
Stuart Howard Lib Dems 3,126 6.8
Ash Haynes Green 2,858 6.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,447
Median age
48
Employment rate
81.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029