Riding profile

Mid Norfolk

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Mid Norfolk: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
8%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.9%
  • Conservative 29.6%
  • Labour 16.6%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Lib Dems 7.8%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereMid Norfolk 34.9%29.6%16.6%9.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.5 19.3% +10.3 21.8% −5.2 10.8% −1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Mid Norfolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

George Freeman

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
George Freeman Elected Conservative 16,770 36.5 —
Michael Rosen Labour 13,716 29.9 —
Kabeer Kher Reform UK 9,427 20.5 —
Stuart Howard Lib Dems 3,126 6.8 —
Ash Haynes Green 2,858 6.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,447
Median age
48
Employment rate
81.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029