Riding profile
Broadland and Fakenham
The question
Broadland and Fakenham: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.5
- P(close race)
- 2%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBroadland and Fakenham | 32.1% | 26.6% | 18.1% | 12.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +6.7 | 19.3% +7.3 | 21.8% −3.8 | 11.4% +0.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Broadland and Fakenham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jerome Mayhew
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Mayhew Elected | Conservative | 16,322 | 33.0 | — |
| Iain Simpson | Labour | 15,603 | 31.5 | — |
| Eric Masters | Reform UK | 8,859 | 17.9 | — |
| Leyla Hannbeck | Lib Dems | 5,526 | 11.2 | — |
| Jan Davis | Green | 3,203 | 6.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029