Riding profile

Broadland and Fakenham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Broadland and Fakenham: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Broadland and Fakenham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jerome Mayhew

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.2%
  • Conservative 27.4%
  • Labour 19.3%
  • Lib Dems 11.1%
  • Green 10.8%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereBroadland and Fakenham 30.2%27.4%19.3%11.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +4.8 18.9% +8.5 21.7% −2.4 11.6% −0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
1.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jerome Mayhew Elected Conservative 16,322 33.0
Iain Simpson Labour 15,603 31.5
Eric Masters Reform UK 8,859 17.9
Leyla Hannbeck Lib Dems 5,526 11.2
Jan Davis Green 3,203 6.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,786
Median age
49
Employment rate
80.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029