Riding profile

North Norfolk

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

North Norfolk: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

North Norfolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Steff Aquarone

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 32.3%
  • Conservative 29.1%
  • Reform UK 26.3%
  • Labour 5.6%
  • Green 5.5%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereNorth Norfolk 32.3%29.1%26.3%5.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +20.7 18.9% +10.2 25.3% +1.0 21.7% −16.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
5.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steffan Aquarone Elected Lib Dems 19,488 41.4
Duncan Baker Conservative 16,903 35.9
Jason Patchett Reform UK 6,368 13.5
Cathy Cordiner-Achenbach Labour 2,878 6.1
Liz Dixon Green 1,406 3.0

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
87,052
Median age
55
Employment rate
70.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029