Riding profile
North Norfolk
The question
North Norfolk: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Norfolk | 36.1% | 27.4% | 26.9% | 6.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +24.7 | 19.3% +8.1 | 25.4% +1.5 | 10.8% −4.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
North Norfolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Steff Aquarone
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steffan Aquarone Elected | Lib Dems | 19,488 | 41.4 | — |
| Duncan Baker | Conservative | 16,903 | 35.9 | — |
| Jason Patchett | Reform UK | 6,368 | 13.5 | — |
| Cathy Cordiner-Achenbach | Labour | 2,878 | 6.1 | — |
| Liz Dixon | Green | 1,406 | 3.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029