Riding profile

Norwich South

UK constituency — England · Urban · east of england

The question

Norwich South: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 31.6%
  • Green 26.4%
  • Reform UK 21.4%
  • Conservative 9.1%
  • Lib Dems 8.2%
  • Other 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereNorwich South 31.6%26.4%21.4%9.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +9.8 10.8% +15.6 25.4% −4.0 19.3% −10.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Norwich South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 26% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Clive Lewis

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
29.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Clive Lewis Elected Labour 21,484 47.6 —
Jamie Osborn Green 8,245 18.3 —
David Thomas Conservative 5,806 12.9 —
Graham Burton Reform UK 5,227 11.6 —
Sean Bennett Lib Dems 3,577 7.9 —
Linda Law Other 455 1.0 —
Elizabeth Davey Other 301 0.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,359
Median age
34
Employment rate
75.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029