Riding profile

Great Yarmouth

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Great Yarmouth: will Other lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

Great Yarmouth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Reform UK in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 44% vote share, against 21% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Rupert Lowe

Sits with Other

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 44.3%
  • Conservative 21.2%
  • Labour 18.1%
  • Green 8.3%
  • Lib Dems 4.5%
  • Other 3.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereGreat Yarmouth 44.3%21.2%18.1%8.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +19.0 18.9% +2.3 21.7% −3.6 11.8% −3.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Reform UK
Margin
3.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rupert Lowe Elected Reform UK 14,385 35.3
Keir Cozens Labour 12,959 31.8
James Clark Conservative 10,034 24.6
Trevor Rawson Green 1,736 4.3
Fionna Tod Lib Dems 1,102 2.7
Paul Brown Other 230 0.6
Catherine Blaiklock Other 171 0.4
Clare Roullier Other 131 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,862
Median age
46
Employment rate
68.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029