Riding profile

South Norfolk

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

South Norfolk: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

South Norfolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Ben Goldsborough

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 27.4%
  • Conservative 24.0%
  • Labour 21.6%
  • Green 13.1%
  • Lib Dems 11.3%
  • Other 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereSouth Norfolk 27.4%24.0%21.6%13.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +2.1 18.9% +5.1 21.7% 11.8% +1.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
5.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ben Goldsborough Elected Labour 17,353 35.0
Poppy Simister-Thomas Conservative 14,527 29.3
Chris Harrison Reform UK 7,583 15.3
Christopher Brown Lib Dems 5,746 11.6
Catherine Rowett Green 3,987 8.0
Paco Davila Other 254 0.5
Jason Maguire Other 129 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,569
Median age
44
Employment rate
78.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029