Riding profile

South Norfolk

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

South Norfolk: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.6
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.6%
  • Conservative 24.1%
  • Labour 18.7%
  • Lib Dems 13.1%
  • Green 12.8%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereSouth Norfolk 28.6%24.1%18.7%13.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.3 19.3% +4.8 21.8% −3.1 11.4% +1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

South Norfolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Ben Goldsborough

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
5.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ben Goldsborough Elected Labour 17,353 35.0 —
Poppy Simister-Thomas Conservative 14,527 29.3 —
Chris Harrison Reform UK 7,583 15.3 —
Christopher Brown Lib Dems 5,746 11.6 —
Catherine Rowett Green 3,987 8.0 —
Paco Davila Other 254 0.5 —
Jason Maguire Other 129 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,569
Median age
44
Employment rate
78.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029