Riding profile
Lowestoft
The question
Lowestoft: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Lowestoft, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jess Asato
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLowestoft | 34.8% | 25.8% | 20.9% | 12.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.5 | 18.9% +6.9 | 21.7% −0.8 | 11.8% +0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Asato Elected | Labour | 14,464 | 34.6 | — |
| Peter Aldous | Conservative | 12,448 | 29.8 | — |
| June Mummery | Reform UK | 10,328 | 24.7 | — |
| Toby Hammond | Green | 3,095 | 7.4 | — |
| Adam Robertson | Lib Dems | 1,489 | 3.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029