Riding profile

Lowestoft

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Lowestoft: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 38.3%
  • Conservative 25.4%
  • Labour 19.4%
  • Green 10.0%
  • Lib Dems 5.4%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereLowestoft 38.3%25.4%19.4%10.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +13.0 19.3% +6.1 21.8% −2.4 10.8% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Lowestoft, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jess Asato

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
4.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jess Asato Elected Labour 14,464 34.6 —
Peter Aldous Conservative 12,448 29.8 —
June Mummery Reform UK 10,328 24.7 —
Toby Hammond Green 3,095 7.4 —
Adam Robertson Lib Dems 1,489 3.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,722
Median age
47
Employment rate
88.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029