Riding profile

Waveney Valley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Waveney Valley: a safe seat for the Green Party?

Editorial read

Waveney Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Adrian Ramsay

Sits with Green

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Green

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Green 44.0%
  • Conservative 23.9%
  • Reform UK 22.0%
  • Labour 4.9%
  • Lib Dems 3.0%
  • Other 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Green Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereWaveney Valley 44.0%23.9%22.0%4.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.8% +32.2 18.9% +5.0 25.3% −3.4 21.7% −16.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Green
Margin
11.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Adrian Ramsay Elected Green 20,467 41.7
Richard Rout Conservative 14,873 30.3
Scott Huggins Reform UK 7,779 15.8
Gurpreet Padda Labour 4,621 9.4
John Shreeve Lib Dems 1,214 2.5
Maya Severyn Other 118 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
89,618
Median age
52
Employment rate
88.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029