Riding profile

Waveney Valley

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Waveney Valley: a safe seat for the Green Party?

Current forecast

Green

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Green 34.9%
  • Reform UK 27.3%
  • Conservative 26.2%
  • Lib Dems 5.5%
  • Labour 4.1%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Green Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems
HereWaveney Valley 34.9%27.3%26.2%5.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 10.8% +24.1 25.4% +1.9 19.3% +6.9 11.4% −5.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Waveney Valley, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 35% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Adrian Ramsay

Sits with Green

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Green
Margin
11.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Adrian Ramsay Elected Green 20,467 41.7 —
Richard Rout Conservative 14,873 30.3 —
Scott Huggins Reform UK 7,779 15.8 —
Gurpreet Padda Labour 4,621 9.4 —
John Shreeve Lib Dems 1,214 2.5 —
Maya Severyn Other 118 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
89,618
Median age
52
Employment rate
88.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029