Monday, November 2, 2026
U.S. midterms in 1 day

Norwich North

Westminster constituency · England · East of England

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.4%
  • Reform UK 25.9%
  • Conservative 18.2%
  • Green 12.4%
  • Lib Dems 3.7%
  • Other 3.1%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
Norwich North 36.4%25.9%18.2%12.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 26.5%+9.9 22.3%+3.6 20.0%−1.9 9.7%+2.7

Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.

Local profile

Population99,574
Median age41
Employment rate86.6%

Source: Office for National Statistics: mid-2022 population, January 2026 labour market

Current member

Alice Macdonald · Labour

In office since July 4, 2024. 59th Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

Labour won by 23.7 points.

Our current projection: Labour ahead by 10.5 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Alice Macdonald Elected Labour 20,794 45.4
Charlotte Salomon Conservative 9,944 21.7
Nick Taylor Reform UK 8,229 18.0
Ben Price Green 4,372 9.6
Chika Akinwale Lib Dems 2,073 4.5
Fiona Grace Other 353 0.8

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

  1. Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shireSNP76%1.2-point gap
  2. Bury St Edmunds and StowmarketReform UK46%1.4-point gap
  3. Romsey and Southampton NorthConservative63%1.4-point gap
Forecast updated