Riding profile

Norwich North

UK constituency — England · Urban · east of england

The question

Norwich North: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.7%
  • Labour 27.6%
  • Conservative 18.1%
  • Green 12.9%
  • Lib Dems 6.9%
  • Other 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereNorwich North 31.7%27.6%18.1%12.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.3 21.8% +5.8 19.3% −1.2 10.8% +2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Norwich North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alice Macdonald

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
23.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alice Macdonald Elected Labour 20,794 45.4 —
Charlotte Salomon Conservative 9,944 21.7 —
Nick Taylor Reform UK 8,229 18.0 —
Ben Price Green 4,372 9.6 —
Chika Akinwale Lib Dems 2,073 4.5 —
Fiona Grace Other 353 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,574
Median age
41
Employment rate
86.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029