Riding profile

South Suffolk

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

South Suffolk: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

South Suffolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

James Cartlidge

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.3%
  • Conservative 27.3%
  • Labour 15.9%
  • Green 13.2%
  • Lib Dems 13.1%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereSouth Suffolk 29.3%27.3%15.9%13.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +4.0 18.9% +8.4 21.7% −5.8 11.8% +1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
James Cartlidge Elected Conservative 16,082 33.0
Emma Bishton Labour 13,035 26.7
Beverley England Reform UK 9,252 19.0
Tom Bartleet Lib Dems 6,424 13.2
Jessie Carter Green 4,008 8.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,277
Median age
49
Employment rate
76.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029