South Suffolk
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Suffolk | 29.1% | 27.8% | 19.1% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.0%+9.0 | 22.3%+5.5 | 26.5%−7.3 | 9.9%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,277 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 76.5% |
Current member
James Cartlidge · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cartlidge Elected | Conservative | 16,082 | 33.0 |
| Emma Bishton | Labour | 13,035 | 26.7 |
| Beverley England | Reform UK | 9,252 | 19.0 |
| Tom Bartleet | Lib Dems | 6,424 | 13.2 |
| Jessie Carter | Green | 4,008 | 8.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ipswich Labour, safe seat
- Clacton Reform UK, safe seat
- Colchester Labour, safe seat
- Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Conservative, toss-up
- Harwich and North Essex Conservative, toss-up
- Suffolk Coastal Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated