Riding profile
South Suffolk
The question
South Suffolk: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Suffolk | 32.4% | 26.6% | 15.5% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.1 | 19.3% +7.3 | 21.8% −6.3 | 11.4% +1.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
South Suffolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
James Cartlidge
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cartlidge Elected | Conservative | 16,082 | 33.0 | — |
| Emma Bishton | Labour | 13,035 | 26.7 | — |
| Beverley England | Reform UK | 9,252 | 19.0 | — |
| Tom Bartleet | Lib Dems | 6,424 | 13.2 | — |
| Jessie Carter | Green | 4,008 | 8.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029