Ontario Forecast
VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
Model Heron on_2029
RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-07-07
Progressive Conservative: 61 seats.
42 polls · 50,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race
Current Legislative Assembly Composition
Seats — 124 total
- Progressive Conservative 79
- Ontario NDP 26
- Ontario Liberal 14
- Ontario Green 2
- Independent 2
- Vacant 1
Seat projection
Progressive Conservative ▬ +0.1 61
- Vote
- 38.3%
- P(majority)
- 19%
- P(largest)
- 100%
Ontario Liberal ▬ +0.0 32
- Vote
- 34.4%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Ontario NDP ▬ +0.3 28
- Vote
- 20.3%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Ontario Green ▲ +0.3 2
- Vote
- 4.8%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
1
- Vote
- 2.2%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Riding map
Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.
All ridings
Sort and filter the 124 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.
| Riding | Prov. | Projection | Vote% | Margin | P(win) | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingston and the Islands | ON | Ontario Liberal | 64.4% | 44.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Kiiwetinoong | ON | Ontario NDP | 64.1% | 43.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Timmins | ON | Progressive Conservative | 64.8% | 41.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Haldimand—Norfolk | ON | Other | 63.1% | 40.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Don Valley East | ON | Ontario Liberal | 62.5% | 36.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | ON | Progressive Conservative | 58.6% | 35.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Don Valley West | ON | Ontario Liberal | 63.4% | 35.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Guelph | ON | Ontario Green | 56.5% | 34.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Kenora—Rainy River | ON | Progressive Conservative | 56.4% | 33.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Ottawa—Vanier | ON | Ontario Liberal | 54.5% | 33.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Beaches—East York | ON | Ontario Liberal | 57.4% | 33.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Ottawa South | ON | Ontario Liberal | 56.1% | 33.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Toronto—Danforth | ON | Ontario NDP | 60.7% | 33.1% | 100% | Hold |
| York—Simcoe | ON | Progressive Conservative | 58.0% | 32.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Vaughan—Woodbridge | ON | Progressive Conservative | 62.2% | 31.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Essex | ON | Progressive Conservative | 54.2% | 30.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Davenport | ON | Ontario NDP | 57.6% | 30.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | ON | Progressive Conservative | 50.7% | 30.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Ottawa Centre | ON | Ontario NDP | 56.4% | 30.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Oxford | ON | Progressive Conservative | 53.9% | 29.0% | 100% | Hold |
| King—Vaughan | ON | Progressive Conservative | 61.1% | 28.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Sarnia—Lambton | ON | Progressive Conservative | 49.9% | 28.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Kitchener Centre | ON | Ontario Green | 51.0% | 28.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Elgin—Middlesex—London | ON | Progressive Conservative | 54.4% | 28.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | ON | Progressive Conservative | 51.4% | 27.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Thornhill | ON | Progressive Conservative | 59.3% | 26.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Waterloo | ON | Ontario NDP | 51.9% | 25.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Scarborough—Guildwood | ON | Ontario Liberal | 57.4% | 25.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | ON | Progressive Conservative | 52.2% | 24.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Orléans | ON | Ontario Liberal | 57.1% | 23.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Niagara Falls | ON | Ontario NDP | 56.6% | 23.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Barrie—Innisfil | ON | Progressive Conservative | 52.3% | 23.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Niagara West | ON | Progressive Conservative | 49.8% | 23.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes | ON | Progressive Conservative | 53.4% | 23.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Ottawa West—Nepean | ON | Ontario NDP | 50.0% | 23.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Markham—Unionville | ON | Progressive Conservative | 58.1% | 23.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Nipissing | ON | Progressive Conservative | 51.4% | 22.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Brantford—Brant | ON | Progressive Conservative | 45.8% | 20.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Simcoe North | ON | Progressive Conservative | 50.0% | 20.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | ON | Progressive Conservative | 47.4% | 20.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Brampton North | ON | Progressive Conservative | 54.4% | 19.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | ON | Ontario Liberal | 54.8% | 19.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Nickel Belt | ON | Ontario NDP | 50.3% | 19.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Etobicoke North | ON | Progressive Conservative | 53.8% | 18.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Huron—Bruce | ON | Progressive Conservative | 48.6% | 18.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Dufferin—Caledon | ON | Progressive Conservative | 47.9% | 18.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Don Valley North | ON | Ontario Liberal | 50.3% | 18.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Simcoe—Grey | ON | Progressive Conservative | 52.2% | 18.0% | 100% | Hold |
| London West | ON | Ontario NDP | 50.8% | 17.3% | 100% | Hold |
| London North Centre | ON | Ontario NDP | 48.2% | 17.1% | 100% | Hold |