Ontario Forecast
VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
Model Harfang des neiges on_2029
RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-09-16
Progressive Conservative: 65 seats.
46 polls · 50,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
Current Legislative Assembly Composition
Seats — 124 total
- Progressive Conservative 79
- Ontario NDP 26
- Ontario Liberal 14
- Ontario Green 2
- Independent 2
- Vacant 1
Seat projection
Progressive Conservative ▲ +0.9 65
- Vote
- 40.8%
- P(majority)
- 69%
- P(largest)
- 100%
Ontario NDP ▼ -2.0 28
- Vote
- 19.2%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Ontario Liberal ▲ +1.1 28
- Vote
- 33.0%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Ontario Green ▼ -0.5 2
- Vote
- 2.9%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
1
- Vote
- 4.2%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Riding map
Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.
All ridings
Sort and filter the 124 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.
| Riding | Prov. | Projection | Vote% | Margin | P(win) | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Mountain | ON | Ontario Liberal | 34.2% | 1.3% | 53% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga Centre | ON | Progressive Conservative | 44.7% | 1.3% | 59% | Hold |
| Newmarket—Aurora | ON | Progressive Conservative | 45.5% | 1.4% | 65% | Hold |
| Milton | ON | Progressive Conservative | 45.3% | 1.4% | 65% | Hold |
| Mississauga—Streetsville | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.4% | 1.4% | 69% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Scarborough—Rouge Park | ON | Ontario Liberal | 45.0% | 1.5% | 50% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Oakville | ON | Ontario Liberal | 47.3% | 1.7% | 81% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.9% | 1.8% | 81% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Peterborough—Kawartha | ON | Progressive Conservative | 40.1% | 1.9% | 87% | Hold |
| Scarborough—Agincourt | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.7% | 1.9% | 78% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.2% | 2.1% | 88% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Etobicoke Centre | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.6% | 2.8% | 92% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Whitby | ON | Progressive Conservative | 46.0% | 3.2% | 98% | Hold |
| Pickering—Uxbridge | ON | Progressive Conservative | 46.0% | 3.2% | 98% | Hold |
| Humber River—Black Creek | ON | Ontario NDP | 35.6% | 3.3% | 98% | Hold |
| Oakville North—Burlington | ON | Progressive Conservative | 47.6% | 3.5% | 99% | Hold |
| Toronto Centre | ON | Ontario NDP | 44.9% | 3.9% | 99% | Hold |
| Markham—Stouffville | ON | Progressive Conservative | 48.5% | 3.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | ON | Progressive Conservative | 44.6% | 4.8% | 97% | Hold |
| Sault Ste. Marie | ON | Ontario NDP | 45.3% | 4.9% | 100% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario NDP |
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | ON | Progressive Conservative | 40.0% | 5.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Burlington | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.3% | 5.2% | 100% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | ON | Ontario Liberal | 47.4% | 5.2% | 100% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mushkegowuk—James Bay | ON | Ontario NDP | 47.9% | 5.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Niagara Centre | ON | Ontario NDP | 42.7% | 5.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Ajax | ON | Ontario Liberal | 48.1% | 6.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Oshawa | ON | Ontario NDP | 45.6% | 6.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Mississauga—Malton | ON | Progressive Conservative | 48.7% | 6.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Willowdale | ON | Ontario Liberal | 49.2% | 7.0% | 100% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Scarborough Centre | ON | Ontario Liberal | 47.1% | 7.2% | 100% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | ON | Ontario NDP | 38.7% | 7.5% | 100% | Hold |
| St. Catharines | ON | Ontario NDP | 42.6% | 7.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Cambridge | ON | Progressive Conservative | 43.2% | 8.2% | 100% | Hold |
| York South—Weston | ON | Ontario Liberal | 39.4% | 8.2% | 100% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Eglinton—Lawrence | ON | Ontario Liberal | 52.6% | 8.4% | 100% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Markham—Thornhill | ON | Progressive Conservative | 51.3% | 8.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Carleton | ON | Progressive Conservative | 48.9% | 8.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Algoma—Manitoulin | ON | Progressive Conservative | 38.7% | 8.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Spadina—Fort York | ON | Ontario NDP | 45.3% | 8.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Scarborough North | ON | Progressive Conservative | 48.7% | 9.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Kanata—Carleton | ON | Ontario Liberal | 49.5% | 9.5% | 100% | Hold |
| York Centre | ON | Progressive Conservative | 50.0% | 9.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Parkdale—High Park | ON | Ontario NDP | 45.7% | 10.0% | 100% | Hold |
| University—Rosedale | ON | Ontario NDP | 45.8% | 10.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Bay of Quinte | ON | Progressive Conservative | 43.5% | 10.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | ON | Progressive Conservative | 41.1% | 10.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Timiskaming—Cochrane | ON | Ontario NDP | 46.7% | 11.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Thunder Bay—Superior North | ON | Ontario NDP | 43.2% | 11.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | ON | Progressive Conservative | 49.2% | 11.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | ON | Progressive Conservative | 50.7% | 11.9% | 100% | Hold |