Ontario Forecast
Leading: Progressive Conservative, with 68 of 124 projected seats and a 82% chance of a majority.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | 68 | 61–73 | 82% |
| Ontario NDP | 28 | 28–28 | <1% |
| Ontario Liberal | 25 | 20–31 | <1% |
| Ontario Green | 2 | 2–3 | <1% |
| Other | 1 | 1–1 | <1% |
63 seats for a majority, out of 124 · 49 polls, 50,000 simulations
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Current Legislative Assembly Composition
Seats — 124 total
- Progressive Conservative 79
- Ontario NDP 26
- Ontario Liberal 14
- Ontario Green 2
- Independents 2
- Vacant 1
Projected vote share
| Party | Vote | 7-day change | Chance of finishing first |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive Conservative | 39.2% | +1.7 pts | >99% |
| Other | 4.6% | −1.9 pts | <1% |
| Ontario NDP | 21.5% | −3.0 pts | <1% |
| Ontario Liberal | 30.4% | +1.0 pts | <1% |
| Ontario Green | 4.4% | +0.0 pts | <1% |
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 50,000 simulations of the election.
Riding map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All ridings
All 124 ridings, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| Riding | Province | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississauga—Streetsville | ON | Progressive Conservative | 44.9% | 1.5 pts | 53% | Hold |
| Oakville | ON | Ontario Liberal | 45.6% | 1.6 pts | 61% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | ON | Ontario Liberal | 45.2% | 1.6 pts | 61% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Scarborough—Agincourt | ON | Ontario Liberal | 44.9% | 1.6 pts | 53% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Hamilton Mountain | ON | Progressive Conservative | 33.5% | 1.7 pts | 66% | Hold |
| Mississauga East—Cooksville | ON | Ontario Liberal | 44.6% | 1.8 pts | 71% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga Centre | ON | Progressive Conservative | 44.0% | 1.9 pts | 75% | Hold |
| Scarborough—Rouge Park | ON | Progressive Conservative | 44.6% | 2.0 pts | 74% | Hold |
| Etobicoke Centre | ON | Ontario Liberal | 44.8% | 2.0 pts | 74% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Newmarket—Aurora | ON | Progressive Conservative | 44.7% | 2.0 pts | 79% | Hold |
| Milton | ON | Progressive Conservative | 44.6% | 2.0 pts | 79% | Hold |
| Peterborough—Kawartha | ON | Progressive Conservative | 39.1% | 2.3 pts | 90% | Hold |
| Parry Sound—Muskoka | ON | Progressive Conservative | 43.0% | 2.7 pts | 73% | Hold |
| Whitby | ON | Progressive Conservative | 45.2% | 4.0 pts | 98% | Hold |
| Pickering—Uxbridge | ON | Progressive Conservative | 45.2% | 4.1 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Burlington | ON | Ontario Liberal | 44.6% | 4.3 pts | 99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | ON | Ontario Liberal | 45.8% | 4.3 pts | 99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Oakville North—Burlington | ON | Progressive Conservative | 46.8% | 4.4 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Markham—Stouffville | ON | Progressive Conservative | 47.7% | 4.8 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Ajax | ON | Ontario Liberal | 46.5% | 5.2 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Willowdale | ON | Ontario Liberal | 47.3% | 5.6 pts | 99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Humber River—Black Creek | ON | Ontario NDP | 36.7% | 5.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Scarborough Centre | ON | Ontario Liberal | 45.3% | 5.9 pts | >99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | ON | Progressive Conservative | 39.3% | 6.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Algoma—Manitoulin | ON | Progressive Conservative | 37.5% | 6.1 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Toronto Centre | ON | Ontario NDP | 45.9% | 6.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| York South—Weston | ON | Ontario Liberal | 37.6% | 6.9 pts | >99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Eglinton—Lawrence | ON | Ontario Liberal | 50.9% | 7.1 pts | >99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario Liberal |
| Sault Ste. Marie | ON | Ontario NDP | 46.8% | 7.6 pts | >99% | Progressive Conservative → Ontario NDP |
| Mississauga—Malton | ON | Progressive Conservative | 48.0% | 7.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Niagara Centre | ON | Ontario NDP | 43.8% | 7.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Oshawa | ON | Ontario NDP | 46.8% | 8.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Mushkegowuk—James Bay | ON | Ontario NDP | 49.4% | 8.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Cambridge | ON | Progressive Conservative | 42.3% | 8.6 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Kanata—Carleton | ON | Ontario Liberal | 48.1% | 8.9 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Carleton | ON | Progressive Conservative | 48.0% | 9.2 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Markham—Thornhill | ON | Progressive Conservative | 50.5% | 9.4 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | ON | Ontario NDP | 39.9% | 9.4 pts | >99% | Hold |
| St. Catharines | ON | Ontario NDP | 43.7% | 9.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Scarborough North | ON | Progressive Conservative | 48.3% | 10.6 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Toronto—St. Paul's | ON | Ontario Liberal | 43.8% | 10.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| York Centre | ON | Progressive Conservative | 49.5% | 10.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Bay of Quinte | ON | Progressive Conservative | 42.6% | 10.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Kitchener—Conestoga | ON | Progressive Conservative | 40.2% | 11.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Thunder Bay—Atikokan | ON | Progressive Conservative | 41.8% | 11.7 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Nepean | ON | Ontario Liberal | 48.7% | 11.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Spadina—Fort York | ON | Ontario NDP | 46.3% | 11.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | ON | Progressive Conservative | 48.3% | 12.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | ON | Progressive Conservative | 49.7% | 12.4 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Parkdale—High Park | ON | Ontario NDP | 46.7% | 12.8 pts | >99% | Hold |