Riding profile
Toronto Centre
The question
Toronto Centre: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
NDP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.9
- P(close race)
- 75%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereToronto Centre | 44.9% | 41.0% | 10.6% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +25.3 | 32.3% +8.8 | 41.4% −30.9 | 4.0% −1.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Toronto Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 45% vote share, against 41% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Kristyn Wong-Tam
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRISTYN WONG-TAM Elected | NDP | 17,415 | 44.5 | — |
| HOLLY RASKY | OLP | 14,152 | 36.2 | — |
| RUTH FARKAS | PC | 5,692 | 14.5 | — |
| ANDREW MASSEY | GP | 1,054 | 2.7 | — |
| SANA AHMAD | OTH | 381 | 1.0 | — |
| STEVE HOEHLMANN | OTH | 290 | 0.7 | — |
| CORY DEVILLE | IND | 151 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029