Riding profile
Toronto Centre
The question
Toronto Centre: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Toronto Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 45% vote share, against 43% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Kristyn Wong-Tam
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.6
- P(close race)
- 96%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereToronto Centre | 45.3% | 42.6% | 9.2% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +25.0 | 33.4% +9.3 | 40.2% −31.0 | 3.9% −1.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRISTYN WONG-TAM Elected | NDP | 17,415 | 44.5 | — |
| HOLLY RASKY | OLP | 14,152 | 36.2 | — |
| RUTH FARKAS | PC | 5,692 | 14.5 | — |
| ANDREW MASSEY | GP | 1,054 | 2.7 | — |
| SANA AHMAD | OTH | 381 | 1.0 | — |
| STEVE HOEHLMANN | OTH | 290 | 0.7 | — |
| CORY DEVILLE | IND | 151 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029