Riding profile
Toronto—Danforth
The question
Toronto—Danforth: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 34.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereToronto—Danforth | 60.7% | 26.1% | 10.6% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +41.1 | 32.3% −6.2 | 41.4% −30.8 | 4.0% −2.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Toronto—Danforth, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 61% vote share, against 26% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Peter Tabuns
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PETER TABUNS Elected | NDP | 25,607 | 60.4 | — |
| CONNOR TARAS | OLP | 8,997 | 21.2 | — |
| ADAM RATKOWSKI | PC | 6,172 | 14.6 | — |
| ORLANDO WRIGHT | GP | 1,199 | 2.8 | — |
| STEPHEN GRAHAM | OTH | 424 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029