Riding profile
Toronto—Danforth
The question
Toronto—Danforth: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Toronto—Danforth, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 61% vote share, against 28% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Peter Tabuns
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 33.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereToronto—Danforth | 60.7% | 27.7% | 9.2% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +40.5 | 33.4% −5.7 | 40.2% −31.0 | 3.9% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PETER TABUNS Elected | NDP | 25,607 | 60.4 | — |
| CONNOR TARAS | OLP | 8,997 | 21.2 | — |
| ADAM RATKOWSKI | PC | 6,172 | 14.6 | — |
| ORLANDO WRIGHT | GP | 1,199 | 2.8 | — |
| STEPHEN GRAHAM | OTH | 424 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029