Riding profile
Don Valley West
The question
Don Valley West: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Don Valley West, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 63% vote share, against 28% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Stephanie Bowman
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 35.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDon Valley West | 63.4% | 28.4% | 5.0% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +30.1 | 40.2% −11.8 | 20.3% −15.3 | 3.9% −1.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEPHANIE BOWMAN Elected | OLP | 18,350 | 57.2 | — |
| SAM MOINI | PC | 10,870 | 33.9 | — |
| LINNEA LÖFSTRÖM-ABARY | NDP | 1,268 | 4.0 | — |
| SHEENA SHARP | GP | 1,052 | 3.3 | — |
| LAUREL HOBBS | OTH | 287 | 0.9 | — |
| BAHIRA ABDULSALAM | IND | 247 | 0.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029