Riding profile

Don Valley West

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on tor

The question

Don Valley West: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?

Current forecast

OLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 62.0%
  • PC 29.9%
  • NDP 4.4%
  • OTH 2.2%
  • GP 1.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP OTH
HereDon Valley West 62.0%29.9%4.4%2.2%
Provincial averageOntario 32.3% +29.7 41.4% −11.6 19.5% −15.1 4.0% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Don Valley West, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 62% vote share, against 30% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Stephanie Bowman

Sits with OLP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
OLP
Margin
23.3 pts
Turnout
42.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.8 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
STEPHANIE BOWMAN Elected OLP 18,350 57.2 —
SAM MOINI PC 10,870 33.9 —
LINNEA LÖFSTRÖM-ABARY NDP 1,268 4.0 —
SHEENA SHARP GP 1,052 3.3 —
LAUREL HOBBS OTH 287 0.9 —
BAHIRA ABDULSALAM IND 247 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029