Riding profile

Oakville

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Oakville: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

OLP

Toss-up

Probability
81%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 47.3%
  • PC 45.9%
  • NDP 4.0%
  • OTH 1.9%
  • GP 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP OTH
HereOakville 47.3%45.9%4.0%1.9%
Provincial averageOntario 32.3% +15.0 41.4% +4.5 19.5% −15.5 4.0% −2.1

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Oakville, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 47% vote share, against 46% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Hon. Stephen Crawford

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
3.9 pts
Turnout
49.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
STEPHEN CRAWFORD Elected PC 22,754 48.0 —
ALISON GOHEL OLP 20,906 44.1 —
DIANE DOWNEY NDP 1,851 3.9 —
BRUNO SOUSA GP 1,235 2.6 —
SHEREEN DI VITTORIO OTH 556 1.2 —
SANDOR KORNAY OTH 93 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029