Riding profile
Oakville
The question
Oakville: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Oakville, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 48% vote share, against 45% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Hon. Stephen Crawford
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.4
- P(close race)
- 85%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOakville | 48.3% | 44.9% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +14.9 | 40.2% +4.6 | 20.3% −15.7 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEPHEN CRAWFORD Elected | PC | 22,754 | 48.0 | — |
| ALISON GOHEL | OLP | 20,906 | 44.1 | — |
| DIANE DOWNEY | NDP | 1,851 | 3.9 | — |
| BRUNO SOUSA | GP | 1,235 | 2.6 | — |
| SHEREEN DI VITTORIO | OTH | 556 | 1.2 | — |
| SANDOR KORNAY | OTH | 93 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029