Riding profile
Oakville North—Burlington
The question
Oakville North—Burlington: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Oakville North—Burlington, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 45% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Effie J. Triantafilopoulos
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Toss-up
- Probability
- 83%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.7
- P(close race)
- 98%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOakville North—Burlington | 46.5% | 45.0% | 6.1% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +6.3 | 33.4% +11.7 | 20.3% −14.2 | 3.9% −1.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFFIE TRIANTAFILOPOULOS Elected | PC | 25,580 | 49.7 | — |
| KANIZ MOULI | OLP | 21,053 | 40.9 | — |
| CALEB SMOLENAARS | NDP | 2,769 | 5.4 | — |
| ALI HOSNY | GP | 1,411 | 2.7 | — |
| CHARLES WROBLEWSKI | OTH | 659 | 1.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029