Riding profile

Oakville North—Burlington

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Oakville North—Burlington: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PC

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
3.5
P(close race)
83%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 47.6%
  • OLP 44.1%
  • NDP 5.5%
  • OTH 1.8%
  • GP 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereOakville North—Burlington 47.6%44.1%5.5%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +6.1 32.3% +11.8 19.5% −14.0 4.0% −2.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Oakville North—Burlington, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 44% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Effie J. Triantafilopoulos

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
8.8 pts
Turnout
46.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.3 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
EFFIE TRIANTAFILOPOULOS Elected PC 25,580 49.7 —
KANIZ MOULI OLP 21,053 40.9 —
CALEB SMOLENAARS NDP 2,769 5.4 —
ALI HOSNY GP 1,411 2.7 —
CHARLES WROBLEWSKI OTH 659 1.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029