Riding profile
Mississauga—Erin Mills
The question
Mississauga—Erin Mills: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
OLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.2
- P(close race)
- 44%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMississauga—Erin Mills | 47.4% | 42.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.3% +15.1 | 41.4% +0.8 | 19.5% −13.9 | 4.0% −0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Mississauga—Erin Mills, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 47% vote share, against 42% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sheref Sabawy
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHEREF SABAWY Elected | PC | 16,694 | 44.3 | — |
| QASIR DAR | OLP | 16,671 | 44.2 | — |
| MUBASHIR RIZVI | NDP | 2,090 | 5.5 | — |
| ADRIANE FRANKLIN | GP | 1,080 | 2.9 | — |
| MICHAEL BAYER | OTH | 751 | 2.0 | — |
| MICHAEL MATULEWICZ | IND | 309 | 0.8 | — |
| SAJID HUSSAIN | IND | 122 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029