Riding profile
Mississauga—Erin Mills
The question
Mississauga—Erin Mills: will PC lose this seat to OLP?
Editorial read
Mississauga—Erin Mills, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 49% vote share, against 41% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sheref Sabawy
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.3
- P(close race)
- 8%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMississauga—Erin Mills | 48.6% | 41.3% | 6.2% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +15.2 | 40.2% +1.0 | 20.3% −14.0 | 3.9% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHEREF SABAWY Elected | PC | 16,694 | 44.3 | — |
| QASIR DAR | OLP | 16,671 | 44.2 | — |
| MUBASHIR RIZVI | NDP | 2,090 | 5.5 | — |
| ADRIANE FRANKLIN | GP | 1,080 | 2.9 | — |
| MICHAEL BAYER | OTH | 751 | 2.0 | — |
| MICHAEL MATULEWICZ | IND | 309 | 0.8 | — |
| SAJID HUSSAIN | IND | 122 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029