Riding profile

Brampton South

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Brampton South: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 50.4%
  • OLP 35.8%
  • NDP 8.3%
  • OTH 4.0%
  • GP 1.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereBrampton South 50.4%35.8%8.3%4.0%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +9.0 32.3% +3.6 19.5% −11.2 4.0% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Brampton South, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 36% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
20.0 pts
Turnout
36.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.4 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
PRABMEET SINGH SARKARIA Elected PC 15,379 52.5 —
BHAVIK PARIKH OLP 9,530 32.5 —
RAJNI SHARMA NDP 2,413 8.2 —
JOHNNY NOLAN OTH 1,042 3.6 —
RAJINDER BOYAL GP 911 3.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029