Riding profile

Brampton North

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Brampton North: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 55.3%
  • OLP 33.6%
  • NDP 8.2%
  • OTH 2.1%
  • GP 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereBrampton North 55.3%33.6%8.2%2.1%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +13.9 32.3% +1.3 19.5% −11.3 4.0% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Brampton North, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 34% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Graham McGregor

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
27.2 pts
Turnout
38.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
GRAHAM MCGREGOR Elected PC 17,597 57.5 —
RANJIT SINGH BAGGA OLP 9,270 30.3 —
RUBY ZAMAN NDP 2,479 8.1 —
SAMEERA FALCON KHAN GP 746 2.4 —
MELANIE PORTE OTH 499 1.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029