Riding profile

Brampton North

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Brampton North: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

Brampton North, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 35% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Graham McGregor

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 54.4%
  • OLP 34.5%
  • NDP 8.8%
  • GP 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP GP
HereBrampton North 54.4%34.5%8.8%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +14.2 33.4% +1.2 20.3% −11.5 3.9% −2.1

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
27.2 pts
Turnout
38.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.3 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
GRAHAM MCGREGOR Elected PC 17,597 57.5
RANJIT SINGH BAGGA OLP 9,270 30.3
RUBY ZAMAN NDP 2,479 8.1
SAMEERA FALCON KHAN GP 746 2.4
MELANIE PORTE OTH 499 1.6
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029