Riding profile

Mississauga—Malton

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Mississauga—Malton: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
12%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 48.7%
  • OLP 41.9%
  • NDP 6.8%
  • OTH 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereMississauga—Malton 48.7%41.9%6.8%2.2%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +7.3 32.3% +9.7 19.5% −12.7 4.0% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mississauga—Malton, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 42% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Deepak Anand

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
12.2 pts
Turnout
36.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.4 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
DEEPAK ANAND Elected PC 15,117 50.9
JAWAD HAROON OLP 11,499 38.8
GERARD MCDONALD NDP 2,000 6.7
ARISH ESMAIL GP 561 1.9
VAN NGUYEN OTH 498 1.7
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029