Riding profile

Brampton Centre

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Brampton Centre: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 49.7%
  • OLP 37.2%
  • NDP 8.9%
  • OTH 2.2%
  • GP 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereBrampton Centre 49.7%37.2%8.9%2.2%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +8.3 32.3% +4.9 19.5% −10.7 4.0% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Brampton Centre, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 37% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Charmaine A. Williams

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
17.9 pts
Turnout
36.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.4 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
CHARMAINE WILLIAMS Elected PC 12,776 51.9 —
MARTIN MEDEIROS OLP 8,357 33.9 —
SUKHAMRIT SINGH NDP 2,161 8.8 —
PAULINE THORNHAM GP 910 3.7 —
KAMAL PREET KAUR OTH 434 1.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029