Riding profile

Brampton East

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Brampton East: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 49.6%
  • OLP 33.2%
  • NDP 11.0%
  • OTH 5.3%
  • GP 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereBrampton East 49.6%33.2%11.0%5.3%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +8.2 32.3% +0.9 19.5% −8.6 4.0% +1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Brampton East, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 33% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hardeep Singh Grewal

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
21.9 pts
Turnout
34.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
HARDEEP GREWAL Elected PC 14,759 51.8
VICKY DHILLON OLP 8,511 29.9
MARTIN SINGH NDP 3,104 10.9
AZAD GOYAT IND 1,376 4.8
NANCY PORTEOUS GP 757 2.7
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029